Here’s what the top rate reviewers are saying

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The Fed meeting this week will be the first since a wave of bank failures threw markets into chaos. Market heavyweights such as Jeff Gundlach and Steve Eisman discussed what they are looking at for rates. The odds are leaning towards a 25 basis point rate hike at the March 22 meeting. Something is loading.

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To raise or not to raise interest rates: That’s the question facing the Federal Reserve at its policy meeting this week, the first since the collapse of three US banks that raised fears of an impending financial crisis.

Market views on the future of the benchmark federal funds rate have been turned upside down recently. Earlier this month, the Fed looked set to hike rates by 25 or 50 basis points, its ninth consecutive hike, as it faces inflation well above its 2% target. .

Traders then began pricing in a possible pause for March after the collapse and seizure of Silicon Valley Bank stoked fears of a broader crisis in the banking sector.

Prior to Wednesday’s decision, the odds were again tilted toward a 25 basis point hike in the fed funds rate, to a range of 4.75% to 5%.

Here’s a look at what some leading commentators and analysts are predicting for the Fed’s next move.

David Rubenstein, co-chairman of private equity firm Carlyle Group:

A quarter-percentage-point hike is the most likely move for March, the billionaire investor said.

A pause would have people believe that the Fed has lost interest in fighting inflation. On the other hand, a 50 basis point increase is too much for some banks to handle at this point.

“So I suspect 25 basis points is the most likely move to split the baby,” Rubenstein told .

Big Short investor Steve Eisman:

“Fifty basis points is off the table,” Eisman told CNBC’s “Fast Money.” “So either they’re going to make 25 basis points or they’re not going to do anything.”

Investors should start to worry if the regional banking crisis causes a pause in rate hikes. “If the Fed doesn’t raise rates…maybe it will be positive for a few hours or a few weeks,” he said. “But the Fed won’t raise rates because they’re scared.”

Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital:

“I just think at this point the Fed won’t go to 50. I would say 25,” Gundlach told CNBC. “For the sake of credibility, they will probably raise rates by 25 basis points. I think that would be the last increase.”

Economist Mohamed El-Erian:

The collapse of the SVB will force policymakers to abandon their aggressive monetary policy, he said.

Allianz’s chief economic adviser pointed to falling US bond yields as a key sign that the Fed will eventually halt rate hikes.

“With the #SVB-related US bailout going beyond what many expected, markets see it as more than protecting deposits and small #tech,” El-Erian said in a tweet.

Goldman Sachs:

The investment bank sees the Fed taking a break from further rate hikes.

“In light of the recent strains in the banking system, we no longer expect the FOMC to proceed with a rate hike at its March 22 meeting with considerable uncertainty about the path beyond March,” wrote Goldman Sachs analysts.

Goldman still expects 0.25% increases at the May, June and July meetings, leaving the terminal rate at 5.25% to 5.5%. Still, there is “considerable uncertainty along the way”.

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